238 mil weekend estimate
238 mil weekend estimate
there is no passion; there is serenity
there is no death; there is the Force
Court brings up a good point. We forget just how impressive TPM's BO run was. Same with Titanic. But I do think TFA has a chance to match and maybe even outdo TPM's infaltion adjusted BO. It's early, and we need to see how TFA holds up over the next couple of weeks. I think Avatar's #1 spot is withing reach. Where TFA is going to CRUSH TPM is in critical and fan reaction. It's already won the critical war and I think it's a safe bet to say it's won the fan reaction as well.Originally Posted by CMJ
I don't know man...arguing box office numbers from 16+ years ago is like apples and oranges. I know that TPM grossed about 30-40M in its re-release, but even so it did over 700M if you adjust (TFA will clear that, but I don't expect it to go much past 800M, so the amount it's gonna clear it by is impressive, but not ridiculously so). That is a huge number.
Titanic's number adjusted for inflation is also mindboggling.
Does anyone really think we'll be hearing this 16 years from now? "Boy, The Force Awakens really sucked. That BB-8 was one of the most annoying characters in the history of film!" As the prequels went on I always thought they weren't going to age well. History's proven me right. How many TFA reviews could be summed up by "TFA makes up for the gawd awful prequels!" It's a recurring theme in both critical and fan reactions.
Mojo has a $238M estimate for the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see the official numbers come down a bit. Next week has a bunch of new releases. None of them are likely to bring TFA down from the #1 spot, but they could cut into its second week numbers and make the drop steeper than if studios had chickened out and decided not to release anything in TFA's second week. But you can't pass up XMas, too many families out to the movies.
"Dad, you killed the zombie Flanders!" "He was a zombie?"
247 million actual. 528ish and growing WW. Friday down a touch, Saturday about the same, Sunday 11m more than estimates. That Sunday hold is insane for such a huge opener.
Every single record availible gone apart from largest Saturday - and it missed that by a blink probably due to lower theatre numbers.
The final numbers are ridiculously good. Wow.. Like you said, the Sunday hold was very impressive. I don't know how many times I'll end up going, but I think I'll get #4 in this Saturday. My youngest daughter really liked it and she's already told me she'll go with me. My too cool for school guitar playing 17 year old son saw it with his GF and friends and he liked it. Wow, it's just so nice to be in the middle of a SW opening and not have to constantly defend the movie from all sides.
The fact that TFA did all of this in December of all times is what's most impressive. December just doesnt get the kind of outragoues openings May / June do.... even with the fact TFA was always going to be big, I think a lot of pre-opening estimates were highly doubtful even a Star Wars movie could open like Jurrasic World in December with good reason - there was no prior example to work with. Big movies in December have been show to have decent opening but huge multipliers (Esp Avatar and Titanic)
Now we have an opening beyond all reasoning (Every number is just insane by any metric) and a real chance of a 3.5 to 4 multiplier esp if TFA starts to perform like a December hit and gets some serious legs. Wont be a Titanic style run but I think going like Avatar might well be on.
Oh and it looks like the all time Monday record also fell by some considerable margin. Very likely 290 million right now - so 500 million in 10 days is possible?
We'll see how it plays for the next few days, but I am definitely thinking I way low balled at 800M. This may go north of 900M at this rate.
40.1 M Monday.........! (previous record, Spider Man 2, 27 million)
Very impressive Monday. This weekend is going to be interesting. It could end up being a PERFECT XMas movie. Families love going to the movies on XMas. Throw in it falling on a Friday and it could be a perfect storm. Avatar had XMas fall on a Friday also and it did great. My youngest daughter wants to see it again, but we're going this Saturday.
I already saw it again. I will probably see it another time or two. Is it worth seeing in 3D?
Keep in mind that the movie was actually shot on film like the old movies so all the 3D you see is mostly Push Up 3D and not real one. Especially in the pirat lair some of the camera's movement looks weird in 3D.
What really made a huge difference to me was standard THX vs Atmos sound. All the lightsabre moments and space battles sound amazing.
Last edited by Crusader; Dec 23rd, 2015 at 09:40:12 AM.
I didn't notice anything amazing about the 3D.
37.1 M Tuesday, 140-180 MIll this weekend almost certain. I guess it;s now becoming clear final gross is anyone's guess
3D was good but not amazing. Definitely not bad!
oh what a tangled web I weave
38 Mill Wed. Only the largest non opening Wed ever by oh about 18 million. TPM also open on a Wed and it's adjusted for inflation gross was 46 million
The 3D showing was nothing special IMO. I wanted to see it twice on opening day so my second showing was a late 3D show. The theater was actually half full so it wasn't as raucous as the 7pm show. What I'd love to see is an IMAX show. The nearest IMAX theater to me is almost 3 hours away.
I've been tracking TFA's gross with a couple of spreadsheets just like the good ol' days. It's run so far has been spectacular. I've been posting over at TFN in their BO discussion and they're really pouring over the numbers there. Our old friend Bowen is over there as well. Amazingly enough, TFA has been tracking very close to what Avatar did over its XMas release. The days of the week and dates match up exactly so it's a good comparison. But what's amazing is that TFA is seeing similar holds and drops, but it's starting out much HIGHER than Avatar ever did. On some days it has practically the same drops or holds despite seeing grosses that are TWICE as high!
Right now there's an outside shot it could pass $500M this Saturday! If it doesn't make it Saturday, it surely will this Sunday.
Charley and I are going to see it for a third run on Saturday. We lucked out that there's an IMAX theatre 20 minutes away, so we're going to do that.
Seeing it for a second time on Saturday. Went alone on opening weekend - this time going to take the owlet with me.
Just reading that TFN thread (ugh, Bowen is just like he was 16 years ago) and 28 million Christmas Eve?!?!? Good grief, so far beyond anything for this time of year and a actual possibly of a 60million Christmas day not being laughed at?!?? 140-175 million second weekend?????
I'll now believe that not just the Boat being sunk within a week from now, Avatar is a real possibility by new year with the insanity of the numbers. If you had told me Avatar would have been knocked off in three weeks, I'd have said you were insane, no movie could do that. Yet...... here we are, we have the perfect storm movie and it's doing the kind of box office that no one saw coming. And with no real competition for another month. I'd say 1Billion was just stupid talk but I think I'll be rethinking that in two weeks time if this kind of insanity keeps going.
It cant keep going like this, surely. It's not going to track Avatar dropoffs for much longer......?
Edit : On the other hand, there's no way TFA beats Avatar's WW numbers. Might get close the the Titanic number tho
Last edited by Darth Turbogeek; Dec 25th, 2015 at 04:29:27 AM.
I've been over there as well. Yes, some things never change.
I actually think the WW record is in play. TFA will break Avatar's domestic record. It's also going to outperform Avatar in some big international markets. China may end up being a huge surprise. SW has never done that well over there, but that market is exploding. The record that Avatar set in China in 2009 gets broken on a routine basis now. The top 6 films from 2015 all beat Avatar's $209M. With a solid 2016 Top 5 performance TFA could take in $250M+ in China. If TFA does catch it, it'll be close.
Man, how I envy you IMAX people. The closest one to me is 3 hours away! My sister saw it in IMAX and said it was unbelievable.
On a sad/happy note, my parents (80 and 75) went to see TFA on Christmas Day. You know you're hitting everybody when you get Cuban senior citizens to your movie. Unfortunately, my mother took a fall getting to her seat and had to leave the theater in an ambulance. She got some stitches at the hospital, but she 's back home. There's not much I can do from 1,200 miles away. I told her to just rest up and that'd I'd send her the Blu-ray as soon as it comes out. She told me not to worry, the theater gave them free passes and she'll be seeing it soon.
50 million est Christmas Day, 58 mill tracking Sat, now officailly past TPH AND ANH. Now enters Dom top 10 at 6, will be 5 after Sunday. After only 10(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) days.
I still just cant believe it'll beat Avatar so easily.
Edit : Fun one ot look for - TFA needs 909 million to make the Adjusted for inflation top 10 list, which would make it the sole 21st century movie to do it. Needs 774 million to beat TPM.
Last edited by Darth Turbogeek; Dec 27th, 2015 at 05:29:43 AM.
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