Star Wars vs Titanic

**Jedieb** · Dec 29th, 2015, 12:12:16 AM

Ladies and gentlemen, this movie is kicking some serious arse!!!! Actuals are in for the weekend and they came in a bit lower than estimates with a $149M weekend. (Still spectacular!) A few hours ago estimates started coming in for today. We could be looking at an incredible $33M for this Monday!! Here's some perspective:

1. TFA $40.1M
2. TFA $33M
3. Spiderman 2 $27.6M

Those are the biggest Mondays of all time. How can a movie have 2 spots on such a list?! I've got a model that actually has TFA hitting $1B domestically on Feb 6! It's going to happen people!!!!!!!!!!!!

**Jedieb** · Dec 29th, 2015, 03:59:33 PM

Final Monday numbers put it at $31M. Still damn impressive hold.

***Lilaena De'Ville*** · Dec 29th, 2015, 04:26:12 PM

That's pretty incredible!

**Darth Turbogeek** · Dec 30th, 2015, 02:50:11 PM

Hey look at that - TFA is at 600,931,000, it's now beaten the Boat's first run in just 12 days(!!!!), and a given TFA will also blow away Avatar within the week. 16-17 days to topple Avatar...... GG, that's insane.

Also given it'll be somewhere north of 800m in a weeks time, Disney would do everything in it's power to get TFA past 1 billion. Wooooow

**Darth Turbogeek** · Jan 1st, 2016, 03:55:23 AM

LIne ball if TFA beat Jurrassic World on 31st Dec, The Boat is sunk Jan 1.

14.2 Days for TFA to beat the Boat, I just never thought that would have been possible. I was hoping for a Avatar type run and maybe 700 million when I started this thread.

***Morgan Evanar*** · Jan 1st, 2016, 02:25:40 PM

Originally Posted by Darth Turbogeek

Hey look at that - TFA is at 600,931,000, it's now beaten the Boat's first run in just 12 days(!!!!), and a given TFA will also blow away Avatar within the week. 16-17 days to topple Avatar...... GG, that's insane.

Also given it'll be somewhere north of 800m in a weeks time, Disney would do everything in it's power to get TFA past 1 billion. Wooooow

Is that inflation corrected?

**Jedieb** · Jan 1st, 2016, 06:00:08 PM

TFA actually has a shot at besting Titanic's inflation adjusted first run. There are alot of different ways to adjusted for inflation. Basically, Titanic's run was somewhere between $900M-$1.1B. In the end, what you really have is a run that's very comparable to Titanic's. That's why $1B is in play. TFA's run will be much shorter, but it opened ridiculously high, and then had holds that no other OW record setter has ever had. These holds are ridiculous. Here's a chart I made showing just how well TFA is holding compared to the last 10 films that set the OW record.

Look at that Week 2 hold, it's insane. Now, TFA does have the benefit of a December release, but look at Catching Fire. It had a holiday release as well. It suffered the traditional 60% drop. I don't care when you're released, when you set the OW record, you're NOT supposed to have a 32% hold. That's insane!

**Darth Turbogeek** · Jan 1st, 2016, 09:49:46 PM

Box Office Mojo redid their Adjusted list to be based on est ticket sales x est average ticket price

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime...st_yr=1&p=.htm

Not perfect but waaaay better than they did before. Adjusted for inflation just doesnt work. TFA needs 109 million tickets to break into the top 10.

***Morgan Evanar*** · Jan 2nd, 2016, 09:29:09 AM

There may be more premium ticket sales for this movie, too. I know there was for Avatar.

**Darth Turbogeek** · Jan 2nd, 2016, 01:07:31 PM

It's likely TFA when it passes Avatar will have sold more tickets as the 3D isnt basically required viewing.

But unadjusted......

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

Boat's gone

Day 16 est 35 million, 721 est.... Avatar day 16 actual 25, 334

Titanic at day 16..... 12, 148. Avatar took 47 days to sink Titanic, it's going to be shot down in 18. 900 million is locked in.