Star Wars - Revenge of the Sith. Episode III Box Office Thread

[Master Yoghurt]

I cant believe there is no thread up for this yet. Lets track, report and discuss the daily box office haul in this thread.

Episode III is opening in aproximately 3700 theaters and is reported to be put out on an amazing 9500 prints. The marketing is stronger than ever before, and the reviews are glowing. This could be the movie the fans have been waiting for.

Could it beat the Matrix Reloaded opening day record of 42.7M? With all the sold out midnight screenings, counting for inflation and the increased print count, it just might. And what about the 3 day weekend? I dont think it will beat Spiderman, but it should still do very strong overall.

Then there is the question what kind of legs this will have. Reviews and early reports indicate its considerable better than the other two prequels. Its also darker and has a PG13 rating, which may make a slight dent, but how that will affect the overall numbers remain to be seen. Possibly, it will be better received than the other prequels, resulting in a higher rewatch count. But it may turn the other way around too, as the first installment in a trilogy always seem to have a better rewatch count the the first. Nowadays, blockbusters tends to have high opening numbers and faster drops than the days of TPM. Overall though, I think it will do better than AOTC.

One thing that speaks heavily in favor of ROTS, is the lack of competition. The market is screaming in agony for a big blockbuster. Surveys shows that ROTS is the most highly anticipated movie this year, beating all other althernatives with a 70% score.

So what do you think? Post your thoughts

[Master Yoghurt]

Here is my preliminary prediction.. (still subject to change)

Opening day: $42.7M
3 day: $94.4M
4 day: $137.1M
Total domestic: 415.7
International: ?
Worldwide: ?

[JMK]

I think this movie is an interesting mix of factors. How many people have been turned off by the relative disappointments of TPM and AotC? Will those people turn out in the same numbers, or have they given up on Star Wars?

There's also a battle between glowing reviews vs the PG-13 rating. Will they negate each other or will one over the other win out? Personally I think the reviews and word of mouth will win out over the PG-13 rating. I don't think PG-13 means that a kid under 13 can't see the movie without a parent, it's just a stronger warning to parents.

There is no competition for the first month of release, so RotS had better generate some seriously great word of mouth and make a boatloads of money then. I think once Batman comes out it's going to be all over for RotS.

Predictions:
Opening Day: 40.4M
3 day: 92.2M
4 day: 128.5M
Domestic: 403M
Worldwide: 850M

[jjwr]

Grosses will definetly come in higher than EP2, we may not see as much up front but the following weeks should be seeing a smaller decine.

A combination of repeat viewings and then people who were turned off by Ep1 & Ep2 showing up after hearing the reviews and wanting to get in on the action.

I'm doubting the PG-13 rating will hurt it much, I can't see most theatres pushing kids away from seeing this because they are 12 and no parent in sight.

No Spiderman to fight with and a weak slate should give this movie a massive month and then coast through the summer to rack up a 400+ final tally.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by JMK
I think this movie is an interesting mix of factors. How many people have been turned off by the relative disappointments of TPM and AotC? Will those people turn out in the same numbers, or have they given up on Star Wars?

There's also a battle between glowing reviews vs the PG-13 rating. Will they negate each other or will one over the other win out? Personally I think the reviews and word of mouth will win out over the PG-13 rating. I don't think PG-13 means that a kid under 13 can't see the movie without a parent, it's just a stronger warning to parents.

There is no competition for the first month of release, so RotS had better generate some seriously great word of mouth and make a boatloads of money then. I think once Batman comes out it's going to be all over for RotS.

Predictions:
Opening Day: 40.4M
3 day: 92.2M
4 day: 128.5M
Domestic: 403M
Worldwide: 850M

Well I think the good reviews will help offset that. The turned off fans I think will come back because of them. And Yoghurt is right the box office is dying for this film, I think it might be bigger that I would have though.

[Master Yoghurt]

The big factor is going to be the repeat viewings. What might help ROTS this time, the summer market is currently quite different to what it was just one year ago. Right now, you will see crap like House of Wax "only" have a drop of 45% from first weekend. Last year, I guarantee it would have been absolutely slaughtered with a minimum 60% drop. The market is less saturated with big releases, and the audience seems more forgiving.

I am nearly 100% confident that ROTS will have a better opening weekend than AOTC. The increased theater count and prints, bigger and better marketing (clone wars cartoon and what not), and the glowing reviews will pretty much ensure that its going to be sizzling hot opening. Also, this time around, there is no Matrix or Spiderman. With a good word of mouth and low competition, ROTS should have better legs than AOTC.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Memorial Day weekend looks stacked although I think The Longest Yard looks horrible, I am not sure about Madagascar. I don't think it looks as funny as either Shrek movies.

[Master Yoghurt]

Personally, those movies are so low on my awareness radar, I have to construct a new display so I can see the readout

[CMJ]

My final total prediction is 370M. As I said in the other BO thread we always overestimate the boxoffice of these things. If it gets a higher total than that, it's all gravy as far as I'm concerned.

[Jedieb]

Here's the big question for me, 'Will ROTS rebound from AOTC's B.O. performance and reach the B.O. levels of ESB, ROTJ, and TPM? The first 3 sequels all had a strikingly similiar B.O. run. Adjust the numbers for inflation and they're all over the $400M mark. AOTC was the first sequel to come up short of that mark, far short. If ROTS performs in a similiar manner to those first sequels then we could see a gross of over $450M. As large as that may seem, it's inflation that's doing the heavy lifting. TPM's $430M would equal an eye popping $490M today! I think we're going to be somewhere between TPM and AOTC inflation adjusted numbers, $330M-$490.

Total Run
$416.5M

[Jedi Master Carr]

I have been think about 360 for the whole run, that was last month and I made that prediction on the BOM board. Now that was before I started reading those fandango reports, still I won't change my guess yet.

[Cat Terrist]

In australia at least, the first day total will be incredible. In the complex I was in, they originally had three sessions at 12:01 am. They added 4 more sessions in two days last week and sold out every one.

The word of mouth is also excellent. Big opening, probably not so hot run.

[Master Yoghurt]

Even though the midnight screening here in Oslo was sold out as expected (those tickets got snatched in an hour the 1st of may) I was shocked to see the theater was only 75% full on the 9 am screening. Thats a major bummer for the second screening overall on the worlds largest THX theater. Admittedly, its early in the morning, and yes, its a known fact the Norwegians fans in particular were very disappointed with the two previous prequels, but still, thats a worrying sign. Too many people were let down to give this a chance, no matter how brilliant I and everyone else who got up in the morning to see this thought it was.

Is it time to put the panic signs out yet? Well, no. I have a feeling judging by Marcus report that this was something out of ordinary that just should not have happened. First we will have to get some reports from thursday afternoon showings from you americans, then we will see if its time to worry.

Also, the word of mouth for this movie will incredible, so it might have very good legs. At least I can hope.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well at midnight here, the theater I was at had it on Ten screens and it sold out for all ten. Not sure about this morning here, although I was watching CNN and they showed fans lining up for the morning shows and there seemed to be a lot of them at least in the big cities.

[JediBoricua]

My theather had 6 screen originally. They added six mores. 12 sold out screens and still haven't heard of anyone who did not like it.

There were 18,000 pre-sale tickets through the Internet alone (we are a country of 4 million).

It's gonna shatter every record here.

[Quadinaros]

Now that I've seen it, I guess I can throw a couple cents in. I don't think the PG13 rating will hurt it, but the reasons it received the rating might. ROTS is very brooding and dark, and it gets darker and darker as it goes. I think repeat viewing will probably be stymied by the dark tone. It's not exactly fun fun fun!! Don't get me wrong. I loved it!

I'll predict $303 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow might be looking at an opening day record

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1823&p=.htm

16.5 for the midnight shows now that is incredible, it should do 40 at least for Thursday.

[imported_Bandage]

And I just got back from viewing it myself. Probably the best of the sequels. Yes, very brooding and very dark. And I have little else to add, for I am no number cruncher, save for the fact that like $900million in productivity was lost in I believe was the U.S. for businesses all around.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Originally posted by Cat Terrist
In australia at least, the first day total will be incredible. In the complex I was in, they originally had three sessions at 12:01 am. They added 4 more sessions in two days last week and sold out every one.

The word of mouth is also excellent. Big opening, probably not so hot run.

At the theatre I saw it at last night, they were still adding shows that day. When I bought the tickets, they only had the 12:01 showing (one month prior). A few days ago I checked, and they had added showings at 12:10 and 12:30, all sold out as well as the 12:01. Yesterday I found out they had added 12:40 (sold out) and 12:50 showings, and they had plans to add a 1 am show if the 12:50 sold out. They added the 1 am showing, so... It really was incredible. The line nearly wrapped completely around the building.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Wow might be looking at an opening day record

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1823&p=.htm

16.5 for the midnight shows now that is incredible, it should do 40 at least for Thursday.

Just $40M? AOTC earned 6.2 million during its premiere midnight which led to a $30.1M weekday.

ROTK $8.0M -> $34.5M and Spider-Man $7.0M -> $39.4M.

So Shrek 2's single day record of $44.8M should be easily broken.

Maybe $50M is possible.

Or did everyone want to see it at midnight? We'll see.