Pennant Chase & Road to the World Series

[Doc Milo]

The Mets and Boston are now hearing footsteps...

The Mets have hit a tailspin and are playing the sloppiest baseball I've seen in a long while. Philly is only 1 1/2 games back as play started today (September 19, 2007)

The Yankees have overcome a horrendous start and find themselves only 2 1/2 games behind the Red Sox; this after the Sox had opened as much as a 14 game lead in the division. The Yankees are 4.5 up in the Wild Card over Detroit. Talk about a tale of two seasons...

Will Boston and the Mets hold on to win their divisions or will the Yanks and Phils catch up?

The Yankees have 11 games to play: 1 at home against Baltimore, 4 at home against Toronto, 3 on the road against Tampa Bay, and 3 on the road against Baltimore to end the season. The Red Sox have 10 games remaining: 1 against Toronto on the road; 3 against Tampa Bay on the road; 2 against Oakland at home, and 4 against Minnesota at home to end the season.

The Yankees hold a 4.5 game lead in the Wild Card. The loser of the division race will most likely be the AL Wild Card as a "fall back" position, unless Detroit comes on strong and the Yanks and/or Boston go into a wild tailspin...

The Mets have 12 games to play: 1 against Washington on the road; 4 against Florida on the road; 3 against Washington at home; 1 against St. Louis at home; and 3 against Florida at home. The Phillies have 11 games to play: 1 against St. Louis on the road; 4 against Washington on the road; 3 against Atlanta at home; 3 against Washington at home.

Who has the better schedule among these two teams?

Philiadelphia is 1.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the NL Wild Card. That means that San Diego currently has the same record as the Mets at the leader of the Wild Card and means that whoever loses the division in the NL East may or may not end up being the Wild Card. More seems at stake in the NL East than the AL East with no consolation prize guaranteed even if both teams play well. One could very well be in, the other out.

The only other races that bear commenting on are in the NL Central and the NL West. The Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers stand tied in the NL Central, both 5 games out in the Wild Card. In that division, it is definitely all or nothing.

In the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks hold a 1 game lead on the San Diego Padres. With Philly only 1.5 behind SD for the Wild Card, and the Mets tied with SD in record, but in first place in the NL East. Of these four teams, only two will make the playoffs.

[CMJ]

The Red Sox are gonna miss the freaking playoffs at this rate. I wanna puke.

I really don't know what to make of the playoffs. No one team seems to have all the pieces to me. I guess the Yankees are the closest thing out there, but I still question the pen before Rivera(even with the Chamberlin kid...he can only pitch so many innings and every other day).

No one jumps out in the NL, but neither did the Cardinals last year and they beat everyone's brains in.

[JMK]

I don't care what ANYONE says. If you have a 15 game lead, and you blow it, even if that lead peaked a couple months ago - YOU. SUCK. You do NOT deserve to even be in the post season. For the Sox to get swept by a Toronto team that had nothing to play for is downright pathetic. I can just hear the city of Boston about to go nuclear...

[CMJ]

I don't care what ANYONE says. If you have a 15 game lead, and you blow it, even if that lead peaked a couple months ago - YOU. SUCK. You do NOT deserve to even be in the post season. For the Sox to get swept by a Toronto team that had nothing to play for is downright pathetic. I can just hear the city of Boston about to go nuclear...

Then again the White Sox basically did the same thing 2 years ago before finding themselves in the last 5 days or so of the season. Then they blew everyone's doors off in the playoffs. You never can tell.

[JMK]

Well that's the only caveat. If they can pull it together over the next 8 games, then all will be forgiven, but I imagine talk in Boston is not very kind right now. They've let the Yankees back in by playing so poorly down the stretch...and I'm not taking anything away from the Yanks, they've been the best team in baseball since the All-Star break...but being spotted a 15 game lead should have been a cinch.

[Doc Milo]

The Sox are now only up by a 1.5 -- 1 game on the loss side.

I have to say that, as a Yankees fan, and after the start they go off to, I never dreamed I'd be watching a race for the division. I was just happy when they finally overtook the Wild Card lead. I think it would be ironic if the Yankees and Boston ended up tied for first, and the Yankees were given the divison on the head to head tie-breaker.

It could end up being a curse to win the division, however, depending upon what the Angels and Indians do. The Yankees do not match up well with the Angels. If the Angels end up with a worst record than Cleveland, and the Yankees win the East, then they would play a best of five against the Angels in the first round. I guess, right now, they have to do what they can to win, and worry about who they play later...

[Jedieb]

I was about to start a playoff thread but I see my fellow and wiser Yankees fan beat me to it. Nice work Doc.

I've got the MLB package from DirecTV. I've watched more baseball this season than probably any season of my life, certainly more Yankees games. I've seen almost everyone one of their games this season. Right now, they're probably playing the best baseball in the American League. Since late July they've been the best team in baseball. But they're NOT a great team. There are no great teams this year, everybody has flaws. I don't have a clue what's going to happen this post season.

The Boston collapse, while humorous and satisfying, is a bit irrelevant right now. Cleveland made it so when they swept Detroit. What that sweep did was pretty much lock up the four AL playoff spots;
Angels
Cleveland
Boston
Yankees

The Yanks can't play Boston in the first round so all these last few games will determine is what team Boston and NY will face. I'd much rather play Cleveland and Boston to win the pennant than LA at any point in the playoffs. The Yanks have a winning record against both those teams and they actually swept the Indians this season 6-0. But LA scares the crap out of me.

And let's be honest, baseball fans, sports fans, and FOX are praying for a Boston/NY ALCS. This is the best rivalry in baseball and one of the best in all of sports. They'd be playing for the pennant for the 3rd time this decade. God bless the wild card for making this possible.

[CMJ]

The Indians and Angels have both been tough as nails as home. Wouldn't surprise me if that's the ALCS matchup.

[Jedieb]

The Angels and Yanks have the best home records in the AL. Boston has the best road record I believe.

[CMJ]

Magic number down to 7 after the Sox win and the Yankees loss. I still would give New York the edge to take the division, but this was a huge help. We'll see if our bleeding has stopped or if it was just Josh being Josh.

[Jedieb]

Tigers lost today and the Yankees won a wild one against Toronto so their magic number is now down to 3. So in a couple of days all the 4 AL teams will be playing for is the slight HF advantage that you get in the MLB post season. I expect to see a lot of sloppy baseball next week as those 4 teams start getting their rotations set and start resting some banged up players. I may actually pay attention to the NL next week. I'd love to see the Cubs outlast the Brewers and make it to the post season. Playoff games at Wrigley are as awesome as they are rare.

[Darth Fernal]

The Sox and Yanks are safe, IMO. The Mets should be worried.

[Jedieb]

The Red Sox have become the first AL team to clinch a playoff spot. If I were Theo I wouldn't care about wins or losses now. He has to worry about Manny, Gagne, and his Japanese reliever.

[Jedieb]

Clinched
Boston
LA
Cleveland

The Yanks lost today, but so did the Tigers. NY's magic number is now down to 1. While in the ignored NL...

Mets
Phillies -2.5

Cubs
Brewers -3.5

Arizona
Padres -2.5
Colorado -4

NL Wild Card
Padres
Phillies -0.5
Colorado -1.5
Atlanta -3.5
LA -5.5
Brewers -6

Basically, either the Brewers or the Cubs are going home. One of the losers of the other two division races will be the WC.

Atlanta probably

[CMJ]

Atlanta???

[Jedi Master Carr]

Atlanta is going to have a tough time making the post season. I would put it between the Phillies and Rockies right now, unless the Mets fall apart. I am not having a good feeling about Boston in the playoffs. I know everybody wants NY-Boston but I see it being Cleveland and Anaheim, if that happens I hope the Cubs make it to the WS that would be the best possible scenerio, maybe the Cubs-Indians both teams have the two longest streaks left.

[Jedieb]

Atlanta???

I honestly don't remember typing that last bit about Atlanta. If anything they've got less of a chance than any of the contenders. It's got to come down to the top 2 WC contenders; Phillies or Padres. It was late and I was trying not to wake the wife while I was typing, maybe that explains it...

[Jedi Master Carr]

heh I understand Oh Boston's Magic Number is now 2. I think they will split the Twins series at worse. The Yankees need almost a miracle now. Of course the HF race is going to be close. The National League though is a mess. Nobody has clinched a playoff spot yet. To me that is amazing.

[CMJ]

It is kind of amazing...but I love the fact that it's still so up in the air in the NL.

[Doc Milo]

Well, the Mets lost and the Phillies won, leaving them tied for the Division with three games left to go. Mets fans everywhere are walking around in a daze, like they've been sucker-punched in a bar fight. I don't think the Mets will pull this one out. I think the collapse will be complete with a three game sweep by the Marlins this weekend. The Mets players don' look like they want it anymore. They're playing without any passion, like all they want to do is go home and rest.

Interestingly, as it stands now, the Padres have a better record that both the Mets and Phillies; so, whoever loses the division, all things being equal, will be out of the playoffs all together.

Now, if I remember correctly, because of the tie-breaker rules, (correct me if this has changed, please) the Padres only have to finish with the same record as both the Phillies and Mets to be considered the Wild Card (assuming no one else finishes ahead of them in the WC standings.) This is because, with all three teams having the same record, the Mets and Phillies would have to play a one game "play-in" game to determine the division winner; this game is considered a regular season game, and thus the loser of that game will have more losses than the Padres, giving the Padres a 1/2 game lead and the win of the Wild Card. I remember this is how it worked years ago. I don't know if the same rules hold water. Does anyone know the intricacies of the tie-breaker rules? Will the division be decided by a head to head record, and the Wild Card by a one game play-in game?

That being said, these are my picks as it stands:

Boston v. Angels --> Boston wins
Yankees v. Indians --> Yankees win


Arizona vs. Cubs --> Arizona wins
Phillies v Rockies --> Phillies win.

Yankees vs. Red Sox --> Yankees win
Phillies vs. Arizona --> Phillies win

World Series:
Yankees vs. Phillies --> Yankees win...